How many iPhones will Apple sell in China?
Its tempting to multiply Chinas 700 million mobile phone users by a percentage pulled out of a hat, and now that China Unicom has announced its deal with Apple (AAPL), everybody seems to be doing it.
Result: Published estimates of how many iPhones Apple will sell in China next year that range from a low of 1 million to a high of 14 million. Here are the numbers weve seen:
? UBS analyst Maynard Um: 1 million in fiscal 2010
? Sanford Bernsteins Toni Sacconaghi: 2.9 million by end of 2011
? Standard & Poor’s Clyde Montevirgen: 4 million in calendar 2010
? Susquehana Financials Jeffrey Fidicaro: 2 million to 5 million
? Broadpoint AmTechs Brian Marshall: 5 million to 7 million in 2010
? iPhonAsias Dan Butterfield: 14 million in the first year of sales
Everybodys guessing, of course, since China Unicom hasnt even announced its pricing or its terms. Meanwhile, Susquehanas Fidicaro offers investors this handy formula: For every additional 1 million phones Apple sells next year, you can add 18 to 20 cents to the companys earnings per share.
The Street currently expects Apple to earn $5.84 a share in fiscal 2009 and $6.79 a share in 2010, according to Thomson Financial.